Q2 2024 Earnings Summary
- Travel + Leisure increased their Volume per Guest (VPG) guidance by $50, reflecting strong consumer demand and sales efficiency. They also expect tour flow growth to be at least 10%, indicating confidence in their core business performance.
- The company is successfully diversifying and expanding their marketing channels, with the package pipeline increasing packages by 140%, contributing to robust tour growth.
- Despite higher loan loss provisions due to increased delinquencies, they are able to raise their full-year guidance, demonstrating the resilience and underlying strength of their business.
- The company is experiencing increased loan loss provisions due to higher delinquencies, particularly among customers with FICO scores below 700, impacting profitability. As CFO Michael Hug stated, "We did see an increase in our loan loss provision in the second quarter primarily due to delinquency levels associated with original FICOs below 700" , and delinquencies are "worse than it was 3 months ago or 6 months ago" according to CEO Michael Brown.
- The Travel and Membership segment is facing headwinds, with efforts focused on getting back to flat or modest growth in 2024, indicating potential challenges in this segment's performance. Michael Brown mentioned, "We'll look at all of them to get back to a flat, if not modest growth for 2024".
- There is a risk of continued headwinds from higher interest rates, with the company anticipating a slight headwind in the next year and not expecting a tailwind until 2026, which could pressure margins. As CFO Michael Hug noted, "Maybe in the first half of the year, just a very, very slight headwind flattening out kind of as we get towards the end of the year and then become a tailwind in 2026".
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Loan Loss Provisions
Q: Are higher provisions expected to continue?
A: Yes, we expect full-year provisions to be about 100 bps higher, moving from previous guidance of around 19% to approximately 20%. This increase is mainly due to higher delinquencies in sub-700 FICO score customers, but other business areas are offsetting this impact. -
Consumer Demand
Q: How is the current consumer demand outlook?
A: Consumer demand remains strong, with forward bookings showing year-on-year increases in owner room nights. We achieved a 37% new owner mix in Q2, up 400 basis points from last year, indicating continued desire for ownership. -
Offsetting Higher Provisions
Q: How will you offset higher loan loss provisions?
A: We are increasing our VPG guidance by $50 and expect tour flow growth of at least 10%. Strong performance in tours and VPG is offsetting the increased provisions, demonstrating the resilience of our core business. -
Securitization and Interest Rates
Q: Will interest rate trends become a headwind or tailwind?
A: We expect a very slight headwind in the first half of next year, flattening out towards the end, and becoming a tailwind in 2026 based on current projections. The recent securitization had a total interest rate moving down to 5.6% from 5.7%, with an advance rate up to 96%. -
VPG Guidance Increase
Q: Is VPG guidance up due to better close rates or prices?
A: The strength in VPG is primarily due to better close rates. Despite a higher 37% new owner mix, VPG remains strong at $3,050, indicating strong consumer interest. -
Marketing Channel Mix
Q: Are you satisfied with your marketing channels?
A: Yes, we've diversified our marketing approach with four channels: owners, partnership with Wyndham Hotels (Blue Thread), non-affinity marketing, and the package pipeline. Package sales are up 140%, offering great growth potential. -
Accor Partnership
Q: How will Accor drive growth over time?
A: We see growth opportunities in the Asia-Pacific region, representing less than 10% of our total EBITDA. Our plan is to restart and expand the business over the next 12 months, capitalizing on Accor's international presence. -
Potential Special Charges
Q: Is there risk of a special charge due to delinquencies?
A: No, we do not expect a special charge related to elevated delinquencies. Such charges typically result from specific events, and current provisions are reflected in our guidance. -
T&M EBITDA Outlook
Q: Can you keep T&M EBITDA flat year-over-year?
A: We're working to achieve flat or modest growth in 2024. We're focusing on growing transactions in travel clubs and managing costs in the exchange business to overcome headwinds. -
New vs. Existing Owner Tours
Q: What is the mix of new owner tours?
A: New owner tours represent roughly 50% of our total tours, with a new owner sales mix of 37%. This mix is maintained both for the first half and the full year. -
Sports Illustrated Locations and Hawaii Demand
Q: Are new Sports Illustrated locations on track?
A: Yes, we expect to announce additional locations in the second half of this year. Regarding Hawaii, we haven't seen any anomalies in demand and are up year-on-year in owner room nights.
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